CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-11-10T09:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-10T09:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42575/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2, SOHO LASCO C3, and GOES CCOR-1 and wide CME seen predominantly to the northeast in STEREO A COR2A in association with an eruptive X1.2-class solar flare from Active Region 14274 (N25W16). The solar flare is best seen in GOES SUVI 131 and a faint circular EUV wave is seen propagating shortly following the flare in GOES SUVI 195 and 284 angstrom imagers.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-11T22:11Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-12T02:33Z (-5.75h, +5.75h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:

Predicted Arrival Speed: 823 +/-  138 km/s 

CME input parameters:

Apex direction (deg): 15.0 longitude, 8.0 latitude  

Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 

Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 44.5

initial CME speed: 1247 (+/- 50) km/s 

initial height: 21.5 R_sun 

initial time: 2025-11-10T12:03Z

drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km  

ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s 

time step: 10 min 

ensemble members: 50k

Lead Time: 12.93 hour(s)
Difference: -4.37 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Maike Bauer (ASWO) on 2025-11-11T09:15Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy